More than likely the largest single factor that will affect demand for the pound is the economic health of the United Kingdom or how the market is expecting the United Kingdom economy to fare in the future.
Sterling is what is known as a free floating currency, so its exchange rate or its price in relation to another currency is determined purely by supply and demand. Simply put, the more the pound is in demand internationally then the stronger its exchange rate will be.
Investors are likely to move finances away from weakening economies. The worsening of expectations for the UK economy during 2008 goes a long way to explain sterling’s sharp decline.
The strength of the pound and its effects on exchange rates. A higher interest rate will mean you will get a far better return on bonds and other Government securities and therefore in turn this will tend to attract financial capital from abroad. If currency markets expect the United Kingdom base rate to fall, the pound as a knock on effect will tend to weaken.
A currency is likely to weaken in order to correct a big trade deficit, which is unsustainable in the long-run, therefore making exports cheaper and imports a lot more expensive.
One of the most immediate effects for most families is an increase in the cost of travelling overseas. As a pound buys less of a foreign currency, hotels abroad, goods and services will become much costlier.
This will also mean that imported goods to the United Kingdom turn will become more expensive to consumers and to businesses that import raw materials or components as part of their production process. Meanwhile exporters who price their goods in sterling will benefit as their goods will become cheaper in overseas markets
Filed under Uncategorized by on Jan 15th, 2010. Comment.
What is an economic recession? This occurs when there is a significant decline in the economy which usually lasts for months. This is visible in terms of consumer spending, employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale trade. A technical indicator of this is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth which is measured by the country’s GDP or gross domestic product.
Experts say that an economic recession is normal because it is part of the business cycle and things usually improve within 16 to 18 months.
During the business cycle, there is a period of recovery, expansion, slowdown and then recession. During recovery, the GDP of a country starts to move up. When the GDP grows robustly, this is the time that it expands. When consumers are not buying that much, this is when you have a slowdown. Because there is weaker demand, you have a recession.
The last economic recession occurred in 2000 and 2001 which featured three quarters of negative growth followed by three positive quarters then five more quarters of sub par growth. Experts say that the same trend will happen right now.
One solution that the government usually does is lower interest rates to help stimulate the economy. Just last year, the Federal government slashed interest rates three times towards the end of the third and fourth quarter year so that overnight loans between banks could be borrowed at 4.25% which happens to be its lowest in the past 2 years.
What makes the economic recession different from what occurred after the Second World War is that this one is caused by falling home values and a crisis of confidence among fixed income investors.
Despite the fact that the country has endured this time and again for over 50 years, there is still no way to predict when it will happen.
Some use the stock market as an indicator. Others use the inverted yield curve which uses yields on a 10 year and three month Treasury securities and the Fed’s overnight fund’s rate. The unemployment rate is also another which happens to be one of the things that make up the index of leading indicators.
There are people in the Bush administration who do want to call it an economic recession because this will make people panic but there are others who are brave enough to admit that it is here. Since it is going to be some time before the economy recovers again, everyone is advised to stay calm, save up and look for long term investments worth going into.
Apart from the war in Iraq, the economy is going to be one of the critical issues that both candidates have to address as they are campaigning for the highest post in the land. Whoever wins, they have to find a way to reduce the unemployment rate, help people save their homes and a lot of other things that affect the average American household.
An economic recession lasts months at a time. If it should continue for a much longer period, then this is called a depression which is something that the world and not only the US experienced at the end of the First World War. This lasted for up to 4 years that many hope will never happen again.
Filed under Recession by on Dec 27th, 2008. Comment.
A lot of people think that an economic recession is bad. While that is partly true, there are certain benefits.
When the economy is in recession, it won’t be long that you will get a check from the Internal Revenue Service or IRS. This may amount from $300 to $1,200 which is the government’s way to help the economy.
If you are wondering how much you will get, compute for this using the economic stimulus tax calculator. This is considered to be a rebate so if you didn’t get it this year, you will in 2009. This was done when the economy was in recession in 2000 but most of the checks came in when the economy was recovering a year later.
During an economic recession, majority of bonds and stocks are undervalued. This means it is bargain to buy them right now so go for it! Before you go on a shopping spree, find out which company’s shares will do better once the economy recovers. With that in mind, it will be easy to decide which one you should invest in. It is also possible to buy new homes when the prices have gone to an all time low.
One solution to curb the economic recession is for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. This means that as long as you have good credit ratings, you will be able to borrow money from the bank.
As a consumer, an economic recession brings tax breaks. What happens is that you don’t have to pay the IRS that much this year because of a deduction for private mortgage insurance which happens to be an extension of the sales tax write off and also a boost in the alternative minimum tax exemption amount.
If you are still working, an economic recession may also increase retirement account limits. You can do this by using your rebate check to turbocharge your retirement savings and investing this in a Roth or Traditional IRA. Some people have decided to invest it in both.
Should your gross income is $100,000 and below, you can now roll over your 401(k) directly into a Roth IRA without having your funds go through a Rollover Traditional IRA first. But if your income is above $100,000, just wait until 2010 when the income limit disappears so that you too can invest this into your retirement account.
There are people who say that an economic recession is also good for the environment because the consumer will be forced to cut costs. People will more likely trade in their sports utility vehicles or SUV’s for more fuel efficient vehicles. This in turn will reduce the number of carbon gases that are released into the air. Unfortunately, industries won’t be able to do the same.
Instead of going to the store to buy something you like, more people will order and purchase the same items online thus increasing business over the web. The same goes for advertising because it is much cheaper to do this online that billboards or newspapers.
There are also lots of deals in Real Estate. The old adage is true in both Real Estate and the Stock Market. Buy Low, Sell High. Right now in Houston, the Commercial Real Estate is booming with investors from Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If you have some investment capital, real estate is great place to start.
There are benefits to an economic recession even if many of us see that nothing good comes out of it. The only consolation is that it is only temporary and the economy will recover by late this year or early next.
Filed under Recession by on Dec 16th, 2008. Comment.
Investors have a hard life. Rising insurance rates, legal liability, security concerns and increasing interest rates may not be actually conspiring to give them early heart attacks, but it can seem that way. Managing risk is in large part about how to lower uncertainty by dealing appropriately with those and other stress factors.
Start by exercising common sense and gathering as much information about the local market and the general economy in addition to the specifics on an interesting property. Study the numbers on rates of new home construction and the ratio of new to existing property sales. Narrow down to your local market(s) by looking online at existing comparables, but also talk with other local property owners about their concerns and plans.
When building new structures, manage risk by reviewing trade area demand — by demographic and daytime population for commercial structures, for example. Look also at site characteristics and examine local competition and contrast with regional differences. Take some time to find out about upcoming environmental regulations.
Be sure to set aside the needed amount for insurance, and err on the side of too much insurance rather than too little, if minimizing risk is an important goal.
Go into a deal with the maximum available capital by not spreading your resources too thin. Keep borrowing low and avoid ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) unless they’re longer than three years and you expect to sell well within that period. ARMs are inherently higher risk, and the ‘interest only’ type even more so. Rates tend to rise more quickly than they fall, over the long term.
If you have an ARM and rising monthly payments occur, due to interest rate increases, while the market price is dropping (as may soon be the case), consider selling. Even stocks have to be sold sometimes during a period of declining prices. Capital preservation is important for long term investing, and part of that involves keeping liquid during a ‘market correction’.
Some lenders allow borrowing more than 100% of the value of the property. Unless you can use the extra cash in a way that more than compensates for interest and other charges, that’s burdensome debt.
Take the time to seek out trustworthy and competent people — don’t settle for an uncooperative or arrogant Title company or an unreliable contractor because you’re busy. Think in terms of long term relationships. Otherwise, the long term will involve counting financial losses.
Risk can be spread by forming partnerships and, in come cases, by incorporation. Incorporation can allow you to separate personal from business assets, protecting you in case of severe decline. But there are limits — you don’t automatically get to walk away from debts by being incorporated. Partnerships though, if you can find reliable and compatible individuals with whom you’ll feel comfortable over the long haul, can strengthen your position.
Partners can help fill in gaps in your knowledge and experience, provide additional capital and someone to bounce ideas off of. But choose carefully. Differences of outlook can lead to stagnation when it comes time to take action. Remember, risk can never be reduced to zero.
Filed under Real Estate by on Dec 5th, 2008. Comment.




